Handicapping the Connor Bedard Contest… (Sep 05) – DobberHockey


I published the Fantasy Guide on August 4, and the latest update is September 4 with Kulikov’s trade, Steel’s signing, as well as my projected NHL rating. Get the Fantasy guide here and immediately download the PDF and worksheet. There’s one more feature article left and you can expect it this week – my top picks for the Calder Trophy. Otherwise, the guide will receive updates on injuries, signings, side cuts and more – throws, line combos and ratings are all updated throughout.


Have you checked out the new goalie post yet?


Looking back at the teams last week in terms of projected rating and projected offense, I got a pretty good idea of ​​the haves and have-nots. And the list of teams is, of course, obvious. But let’s review the situation and give some odds.

Let’s eliminate one thing now. I don’t have last year’s bottom dweller in the mix. Montreal is clear. It’s not a playoff team. Not even close. But they won’t be there. In fact, I have six teams finishing below them in the standings and five of those teams have a real chance.

Some major odds takers have been offering the following odds since last week: Arizona and Chicago each at 3-1, Montreal at 5-1 and Buffalo at 10-1. Really far. Buffalo is safely out of the mix and is closer to a playoff spot than finishing last overall. No, they will still drop about 13 points from a playoff spot and finish 13e in the East – but they will be far from the last in the general classification.

The “Tankathon” website has Chicago at 18.5%, Arizona at 13.5%, San Jose at 11.5%, Montreal at 9.5% and Buffalo at 8.5%.

All these people are wrong. I’m the only one right, of course. Let me help you place fun little bets at any gambling site that gives you the best odds. My partners, if you want to support me with any click (hint) are: BetMGM, bet365, Caesars and Unibet.


out of the mix:

Buffalo – Come on. This ever-improving team just finished a 75-point season. A full season of health from Alex Tuch and Casey Mittelstadt, full seasons of Jack Quinn, Owen Power, Peyton Krebs – and for me they’ve improved on the net with Eric Comrie, who will start the season as a substitute but the will finish as a starter. no mistake. And bettors think this team will make a move return? How stupid are these people? To get into the Bedard mix, at least in terms of the best lottery odds, you have to be 60 points or less. Buffalo just had 75 and they’re a better team this season. So stop bringing the Sabers into this conversation.

Montreal – The Habs finished the season 14-19-3 under Martin St. Louis. They were 8-30-8 before that. The “real” Cole Caufield has arrived, Jonathan Drouin is healthy and entering his contract year, and the team has added Kirby Dach. If they swap a striker to make room, then Juraj Slafkovsky can also be added to the roster. Subtract Jeff Petry but add Mike Matheson and Justin Barron. This team will not make the playoffs, but they are safely above the 60-point threshold.

NY Islanders – I probably have the Islands ranked lower than most teams. Yes, they have a new coach and they also boast of having the second best goaltender in the league for my money, so it could go either way. But honestly, after Matt Barzal and Noah Dobson, this team has zero star power. And they haven’t done anything this offseason. Literally nothing. By that logic, I could move them all the way to last. But it’s also the team that reached the semi-finals a year ago (literally the same team – Lou really doesn’t change absolutely anything), so there’s no way they’re that low. Expect plenty of 2-1 wins – but not enough to qualify for the playoffs.


In the mix for Bedard:

Arizona – Not much has changed for the Coyotes, who finished with 57 points last season. But I upgraded them just from their current roster. Not as much as the Sabres, but definitely more than the Islanders. Clayton Keller really came into his own, starting at around 20 games last season. Ditto for Nick Schmaltz. And Barrett Hayton seems ready to take the next step. They don’t have Krebs or Quinn, but they do have lesser lights like Nathan Smith and Jack McBain. They also have addition by subtraction, no longer having to play Phil Kessel or Loui Eriksson. Give them a light increase in their final total for 2022-23. Odds: 15-1

Seattle – A full season of Matty Beniers and Jaden Schwartz, plus the additions of Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky and Shane Wright made this a better team. But they are in a division against Edmonton, Calgary, Vegas, Los Angeles and Vancouver. For me, these five teams have either outright improved on the ice or pulled together enough (i.e. Vancouver signed Bruce Boudreau) to ensure they have more wins. I think Seattle has tougher games this year, but with a better roster to deal with them. Odds: 12-1

San Jose – Somehow, this underwhelming roster churned out 77 points last season. They did well to add Kaapo Kahkonen and I think he will do a good job. But they traded Brent Burns and oddly released their best rookie last season in Jonathan Dahlen. Their most promising rookie coming this year (in my opinion), Sasha Chmelevski, didn’t even bother to negotiate a contract – he just ran off to the KHL. And he was born in California! I don’t know how the Sharks got 77 points, but they got less this time around. Maybe as low as 60. Odds: 12-1

Philadelphia – The bottom line is that the Flyers lost Claude Giroux and Oskar Lindblom and added Tony DeAngelo and technically Sean Couturier (who missed much of last season). They have Joel Farabee and Bobby Brink starting the season on the sidelines. Carter Hart still hasn’t recovered. Philadelphia won 61 points in 2021-22 and I’m not sure they’ll add anything to that. In fact, look for them to sink a little deeper. Odds: 8-1

Chicago – Only a lottery win by another competitor will remove Bedard from this team. New GM Kyle Davidson runs this team like a fantastic team. He made the decision to tank. And while most NHL GMs make that decision and then carefully trade their assets over the course of a full year, fantasy GMs tend to do it all at once in what we call a “fire sale.” “. Kyle Davidson is a fantastic GM. Gone are Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat, Kirby Dach and Dominik Kubalik. The entrants are defrocked like Max Domi, Andreas Athanasiou, Jack Johnson and Colin Blackwell. Their goalkeeping duo will be Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock. And while I don’t mind the skill level of this pair, both are pretty injury prone and neither can be counted on to start 40 games. Davidson doesn’t even try to hide the fact that he’s tanking. Odds: 3-1


The Dynasty/Keeper leagues can expect some serious tanking this year. My only league already has a general manager with them in the bag, with a roster full of youngsters who will get very few points this season. I have no problem with dynasty league tanking. Unlike real hockey, we don’t have fans watching the games. If a GM wants to pay their dues and give up a chance to win or place for several years, go for it. In fact, it’s often the best way to change things. In a competitive dynasty (keep everyone), recovering from a full tank can take up to seven or eight years.



See you next Monday.

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